Fantasy Football young guns; Who’s high risk and who’s got the highest reward for 2016? 

     With the abundance of young blood introduced into the NFL’s quarterback position the past couple of seasons, it’s easy to wonder who’s going to continue to rise and who will fall. The rising stars of the NFL’s future includes; Kirk Cousins, Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Derek Carr, Brock Osweiler, and unproven rookies Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, so a lot of potential for sure. Here we will provide two picks you can feel comfortable taking and two picks to stay away from when it comes time to drafting your fantasy football quarterbacks. So here we go…

HIGHEST REWARD

Derek Carr

 -Is my top pick for safest young quarterback moving forward for many different reasons. The first, in which no one talks about is the fact that Oakland spent a small fortune on beefing up their offensive line during the off-season. Throw in a dynamite wide receiving corps of young stud Amari Cooper and resurgent veteran Michael Crabtree, he has some very appealing options that are more then capable of handling heavy workloads during a grueling NFL season. Not to mention, a running back who’s got explosive potential out of the backfield in Latavius Murray, who forces defenses to respect the Raiders run game enough to open up the passing game more down field and give this offense the near perfect mix of what you look for in a high powered fantasy point whoring offense.

  Derek, who practically lived at the Texans facility when older brother David Carr was supposed to be the Texans “franchise quarterback”, was introduced to a NFL locker room much younger than your traditional NFL players in the league. David’s greatest career accomplishment certainly wont be as the first overall draft selection, but more as a coach for his kid brother Derek who, appears to have soaked up all the advice as he could and it’s going to pay off in a big way. 

Jameis Winston:

    

-Before his rookie campaign kicked off, Winston was doing an interview called “Rookie Confessional” for NFL.com and was asked, “Who are you most looking forward to playing in 2015?”, the rookie, who had not even taken an NFL snap yet made everyone watching instantly go wide eyed with disbelief upon revealing his answer saying, “The player I’m most looking forward to play against has to be, probably J.J. Watt,” Winston said. “We play them Week 3 in Houston I believe. It’s going to be a fun matchup right there!”. 

Considering his opponent, he avoided being sacked and even ended Watt’s 7 game streak of at least one sack or more which dated back to the 2014 season. Although the bucs lost that game to the Texans, Winston made his mark with his quick decision making (regardless of right or wrong), fast release, and ability to avoid taking sacks in the pocket, which made him look like an elite NFL quarterback in training.

Out of the quarterbacks that played all 16 games in 2015, Winston took 27 sacks which tied him for 4th fewest in the league for sacks taken, which is pretty incredible considering his rookie status and his average o-line play in pass protection. He also had a sack percentage (percentage of time sacked when attempting a pass) of 4.8 which was good enough for the 6th ranked QB in the NFL but the interesting twist here is that the quarterbacks who ranked higher than Winston in both statistics mentioned above, had an Offensive line rated very comfortably in the top 10 for pass protection in 2015. The Bucs ranking? An average Joe 14th overall.
HIGHEST RISK:
Blake Bortles:

– Bortles had an awesome fantasy line last year, which was largely inflated by the fact that the Jaguars were terrible on defense and had little to no success in the run game. With TJ Yeldon proving, he is nothing more than a platoon running back which led the Jags to sign a very solid veteran who is also really good when used in moderation in Chris Ivory. The run game is looking more and more like it will eat into the game plan this year and that will come at Bortles fantasy expense. 

Out of the quarterbacks who started all 16 games last season, Bortles was the second worst in completion percentage bettering only Jameis Winston at 58.6%. Bortles, who was drafted almost 4 years ago, threw almost 100 more attempts, plays in a high octane offense under Gus Bradley that relied on high Volume passing to stay in games last season and the biggest xfactor of them all? Bortles threw all of 59 passes the entire 2016 season when the Jaguars had the lead. Yikes!

Along with a revamped defense its widely speculated that the Jags won’t be getting blown out as much this year so based on the current game trends he is my number one choice for biggest regression this year amongst the young QB’s.

Marcus Mariota:

– Mariota has the tools you look for in an NFL qb, he has the poise, he has the tough ability to get over a bad play he made very quickly and has overall elite athleticism for the QB position. However, the history of the quarterback who runs also shows there are very few who actually can do it for long periods of time. The main reason why he is here on this list is the simple fact that Tennessee’s o-line has been absolutely terrible, ranking 32nd in overall line play for 2015. They did add a few average pieces to their offensive line to try to improve that dead last ranking, but adding guys like Ben Jones doesn’t exactly strike fear into opposing defenses. 

    The Titans also added DeMarco Murray and drafted Alabama stud running back Derrick Henry in the NFL draft a couple months ago it appears that Tennessee is going to run the ball more in 2016 in order to protect their franchise qb from injury.

He got banged up in his rookie season and missed 3 games due to injury, largely because his o-line failed to protect him. Mariota took 38 sacks in 12 games and had a 9.0 sack percent rating (times sacked per pass attempt), a rating bad enough for dead last amongst NFL quarterbacks. Robert Griffin III had a 7.1 rating his rookie season with 31 sacks and had an even lower sack rating in 2014 at 13.7, where injuries and mindset have led the once elite prospect to where he is today, just an afterthought and perhaps his last opportunity in the qb grave yard that is the Cleveland Browns.While I do believe in the man (Mariota), it is the situation he is in that will hinder his growth in 2016.

 

Author: Shaun “the don”

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Draft Strategy: CHECK, RAISE, FOLD.

      Fantasy Football and Poker are very similar in nature. While some (most likely noobs) would refer to both as an act of ‘gambling,’ we Juggernauts fully understand the difference between ‘Pure chance’ and ‘Skill-chance’. In order to become elite, you must rely on your skills, experience and of course be selective with the knowledge you absorb. In other words, you must know when to hold ‘em, and (before it’s too late) know when to fold ‘em.

Using the current fantasy football ADP (average draft position) we will go over a few players that stand out from the rest. Each player will be given one of three tags;

1) Check – meaning that we hold, the ADP fairly matches the players projected value and therefore we stand tight

2) Raise – signifies a player that we see greater value than where they are currently going in most drafts.

3) Fold – these are players that we feel will not live up to their current draft position, and given where there are going, will most likely not be on any of our rosters.
Make sense? Good.

Now, let’s get to it….

Joey “Joker” picks

Dion Lewis ADP: 47

RAISE Dion Lewis is currently going number 47 overall, essentially the 20th RB off the board. This is around the same ADP as Jeremy Langford, Matt Jones, and DeMarco Murray. Lewis was off to a hot start last year as one of the main focal points in the New England offense. He was waiver wire gold. Unfortunately, Lewis suffered a season ending injury during week 7 leaving owners searching for a replacement. 

     Before the injury, Lewis was on pace for: Receiving: 82 receptions, 880 receiving yards, 5 TD’s & Rushing: 534 yards, 5 TD’s. These are terrific numbers that would make Lewis a top 5 overall RB. When it comes to PPR leagues (point per reception), Lewis is a sure RAISE and can be taken with confidence a round or two earlier.

Drew Brees ADP: 62

RAISE Drew Brees might be my man crush all day every day. The dude is the definition of consistency. Since Brees joined the Saints in 2006 (10 years), he has averaged a ridiculous 4,850 yards and almost 35 TD’s per season (all while missing only 2 games). 

    Currently the gun slinger is being drafted as the 6th QB off the board (number 62 overall). This is behind the likes of Big Ben (59) and Andrew Luck (48). Just for a simple comparison, and laughs while you’re at it; in the last 10 years, Big Ben has averaged 3,800 yards and 24 TD’s (career high of 32). 

 Allen Robinson ADP: 16

FOLD Don’t get me wrong, I love me some Allen Robinson. He is a freak athlete with elite WR talent. The issue is that he is currently going number 16 overall in most drafts. That’s too high. Last season Robinson tied for the league lead in receiving TD’s with 14. Impressive indeed but hardly repeatable. 

     The Jaguars were the ultimate garbage time team as Blake Bortles (who led the league in interceptions) aired it out in order to give his team a fighting chance as they trailed early and often. With the new RB help (addition of Chris Ivory) and an improved defense, the likelihood of Allen Robinson repeating last year’s totals are slim. At 16 overall, no thank you.  Give me Keenan Allen (19 overall), or Mike Evans (21).

Shaun “The Don” picks

Cam Newton     ADP: 30 

CHECK Cam had a great year last year and you could argue that if Carolina played ANY other team than the Broncos they probably would have won the Superbowl. However, the Panthers in 2016, minus top corner Josh Norman, have a much tougher schedule this year with much better defenses then they played in 2015.      Expecting the self proclaimed, “Superman”, to repeat last year’s magical run to the big game is far fetched because he is not able to feast on AFC South bottom of the barrel defenses this year, AND his own divison which sucks butt also. Which does not make him very appealing as a high draft pic, even with the gaudy stats he put up in 2016.

      Although,  he does get his favorite target back from injury, the beast that is Kelvin Benjamin, which means that Cam is still an elite option at quarterback and is a solid pick up right where his ADP is, which is in the middle to late third round in non keeper league formats.

Arian Foster.    ADP: 100. 

  RAISE The Dolphins essentially trade for Foster with out actually trading for him, swapping Lamar Miler, who signed with Houston at the beginning of free agency and now Foster has signed with Miami. I don’t care what anyone says, if Foster is healthy (even for the time being) Ajayi does not have any shot at the starting role out of the gate. 

     Foster a few years ago was easily the number one overall pick in Fantasy drafts and has an incredibly unique blend of elusive cutting and preemptive field vision to be an elite running back even if he’s lost a step due to injuries. Currently, his ADP sits at 100, which is sure to change with the news of his signing yesterday, so mark him up in your draft to around 60-70 and enjoy his elite skill set for half the season. 

CJ Anderson   ADP: 36

FOLD Anderson came through for the Broncos in the playoffs last year and was rightfully rewarded for being the best player on offense en route to an always elusive Superbowl title. 

    However, with the way things are shaping up for the Broncos with Mark Sanchez pegged as their starter at Quarterback to date, not too much is expected from their passing game this year which typically results in opposing defenses loading the box bringing heavy blitzes forcing the offense to beat them at their weak point,  through the air. He has never really been good when teams stack the box against him, he’s tough and can make good cuts but does not have the break away speed to outrun a loaded box to the edge of the line. Not to mention, he plays in a division loaded with atheleteicly talented defenses and I would actually recommend taking his division rival in Oakland who’s ADP currently sits at 37, one behind CJ’s.

      With the Raiders quietly spending boat loads of cash on their O-line during the offseason, Latavious Murray has the opportunity to finish this year as a top 5 running back in Fantasy for 2016 and is easily one of my top break out candidate’s for 2016.

Authors: 

 Joey “the joker” 

Shaun “the don”

Wide out heaven, running back hell.

Odell Beckham Jr

    When it comes to choosing the best choice in the front end of the draft, you should be zeroed in on Odell Beckham Jr. In his first 25 games in the league, OBJ’s stats already have him ahead of NFL god Jerry Rice and where his stats were 25 games in, which is insane considering the fact that Rice is hands down the best wide receiver to EVER play the game. 

  Even though Eli Manning has his moments and Victor Cruz returning from a two year injury hiatus and the G-men drafting another stud wide receiver in Sterling Shepherd for head coach Ben McAdoo’s gun slinger style system. Beckham is the catalyst to this offense and he will be the premium fuel that makes this motor continue to hum in 2016.

Ezekiel Elliot 

    A potential first round bust this year that no one is talking about is Ezekiel Elliot. I know, I know, everyone is saying that he is bullet proof and will be the next Emmitt Smith running behind this Cowboy O-line which IS by far the best O-line in football. Although, if the facts of history tell us anything it tells us that by taking a running back in the top 5 of the NFL draft is a MAJOR risk. 

   Since 1995 only TWO running backs taken there have gone on to have hall of fame careers (LaDanian Tomlinson and Jamal Lewis), who both were drafted 15 plus years ago.

    The only back to have a good career since then as a starter was Edgerrin James, he also had the luxory of playing with one of the best QB’s in history during the prime of his career in Peyton Manning. The rest includes big time busts, Ki-Jana Carter, Curtis Enis, Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams, Reggie Bush, Darren McFadden, and Trent Richardson.       

   The NFL is a different game than college, every single one of these running backs dominated college football and every one of the “experts” hyped them up just as much as they are hyping up Elliot now. Not to mention, the Cowboys have a very crafty veteran on the roster named Alfred Morris, if Elliot struggles early this could evolve into a by committee rotation for Elliots rookie season as the Cowboys RB situation was last year.

   In Washington last year, Matt Jones was supposed to be the guy because his talent dwarfed Morris’ but  the smart veteran back managed to steal the job away from the overconfident rookie and take back his starting role.

   However, he is a must own in Keeper/Dynasty leagues just based on the potential of what his future may hold in Dallas if he can evolve into what everyone believes he can be, a top 5 back in fantasy for years to come barring injury of course. Proceed with caution in non keeper based leagues and maybe go with a more proven running back situation elsewhere early on in your draft.


Kelvin Benjamin

   Littered with underrated talent in the top 100, a little luck can provide borderline elite talent. In some cases, you can find top 20 values in the fourth and fifth rounds with the right selections on draft day. Kelvin Benjamin could be that guy this year and is averaging in the mid 40’s to mid-50’s, depending on whose rankings you look at.

  Benjamin’s sophomore season was lost when he blew out his knee in training camp and no one seemed to notice because of how well Cam Newton played last year leading the team to the Superbowl. The uber talented wide out was a close second place for rookie of the year the season before, behind none other than Odell Beckham Jr. In any other year with the 1,000 plus yards receiving and 10 plus TD’s he put up in his rookie campaign, he would have won that award. 

      With Cam, who loves throwing up the jump ball to his receivers (tallest average height in the league) and is one of the more accurate passers in the league Benjamin’s elite athleticism and huge hands allow for him to make spectacular catches for big gains. During his rookie season he was  Cam Newton’s favorite red zone target by far and he was a beast between the 20’s so mark him up on your draft board a round and enjoy first round talent at a discount.

 

Devonta Freeman

  Every year someone who is highly touted coming into the season falls flat on their face the following season, Eddie Lacy and CJ Anderson are prime examples of this last year. NFL football is constantly changing colors and if guys dont keep their game up they can fall and burn fantasy owners in the top of their drafts. A potential candidate to free fall in 2016 is Devonte Freeman, a guy who took 2015 by storm scoring seemingly at will in the beginning of the season and was the highest scoring fantasy football player in most formats through week 8 (4.7 YPC and 9 TD) but after week 8 (3.1 YPC and 2 TD) tells a much different story about his progression coming into the 2016 season. His season splits for 2015 provide a very alarming possibility of what may come with Freeman in the top of drafts with “experts” having him going as early as the 8th pick overall, yikes! 

  The culprit? Tevin Coleman, Atlanta has a 3rd round draft pick invested in the young running back and he was hand-picked by the coaching staff to be the running back of the future. Do you honestly think that the Falcons are going to have a long leash with Freeman who is not in the immediate future plans of the offense? 

    If Coleman can stay healthy and continue to perform at his 4.5 yards per carry average on 80 plus carries in 2015 he is going to win the starting job, which he held coming into the season before breaking his ribs. Freeman at best will be a committee fill in when Coleman needs a breather but for now he is the main man in a Kyle Shanahan led offense that loves to feature a power run game inside the 20’s but the writting is on the wall here and Freeman’s starter status is in serious jeopardy and would even advise trading him while his value is still high.

Contact info:

Shaun fantasyfootballjuggernauts@gmail.com

Fantasy Football Juggernauts site 

Top 100 Fantasy Football Rankings 2016 (pre-training camp)

The 2016 Fantasy Football season is upon us and with the initial release of the pre-training camp Top 100 comes a generalized view of what to look for as the pre-season unfolds and will discuss a couple players situations to keep an eye on so you can better prepare leading up to your fantasy draft.
With NFL teams looking to throw the ball down field more it has opened the door for elite wide receivers to take over the top spots in the rankings that has widely been dominated by running backs in years past. Players like Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones, and DeAndre Hopkins were able to put up quarterback like numbers for fantasy owners regularly last year, so with out further delay here are our pre-training camp top 100 rankings.

RANK, PLAYER TEAM
1. Adrian Peterson MIN
2. Antonio Brown PIT
3. Julio Jones ATL
4. Odell Beckham Jr. NYG
5. David Johnson ARI
6. Le’Veon Bell PIT
7. Todd Gurley LA
8. Jamaal Charles KC
9. Lamar Miller HOU
10. Ezekiel Elliott DAL
11. Allen Robinson JAX
12. DeAndre Hopkins HOU
13. Aaron Rodgers GB
14. Thomas Rawls SEA
15. Rob Gronkowski NE
16. Doug Martin TB
17. A.J. Green CIN
18. Dez Bryant DAL
19. Mark Ingram NO
20. Brandon Marshall NYJ
21. Alshon Jeffery CHI
22. Mike Evans TB
23. LeSean McCoy BUF
24. Eddie Lacy GB
25. Devonta Freeman ATL
26. Cam Newton CAR
27. Matt Forte NYJ
28. Keenan Allen SD
29. Kelvin Benjamin CAR
30. Amare Cooper OAK
31. Carlos Hyde SF
32. Doug Baldwin SEA
33. Julian Edelman NE
34. Russell Wilson SEA
35. Jordan Reed WAS
36. Demaryius Thomas DEN
37. T.Y. Hilton IND
38. Andrew Luck IND
39. Golden Tate DET
40. Randall Cobb GB
41. Latavius Murray OAK
42. Sammy Watkins BUF
43. Greg Olsen CAR
44. Matt Jones WAS
45. Drew Brees NO
46. Jeremy Maclin KC
47. Carson Palmer ARI
48. Jarvis Landry MIA
49. Eric Decker NYJ
50. Michael Floyd ARI
51. Jordan Matthews PHI
52. Ben Roethlisberger PIT
53. Torrey Smith SF
54. Jeremy Hill CIN
55. DeVante Parker MIA
56. Jay Ajayi MIA
57. Dion Lewis NE
58. Emmanuel Sanders DEN
59. Dorial Green-Beckham TEN
60. Allen Hurns JAX
61. David Carr OAK
62. Giovani Bernard CIN
63. Ameer Abdullah DET
64. Jeremy Langford CHI
65. Delanie Walker TEN
66. Travis Kelce KC
67. Gary Barnidge CLE
68. Donte Moncrief IND
69. Tom Brady NE
70. John Brown ARI
71. Tyler Lockett SEA
72. Kirk Cousins WAS
73. T.J. Yeldon JAX
74. Frank Gore IND
75. Eli Manning NYG
76. Justin Forsett BAL
77. Danny Woodhead SD
78. Karlos Williams BUF
79. Jameis Winston TB
80. Willie Sneed NO
81. Larry Fitzgerald ARI
82. Coby Fleener NO
83. Ladarius Green PIT
84. Blake Bortles JAX
85. LeGarrett Blount NE
86. Chris Ivory JAX
87. Stefon Diggs MIN
88. Marvin Jones DET
89. Melvin Gordon SD
90. Kevin White CHI
91. Isiah Crowell CLE
92. Tavon Austin LA
93. Darren Sproles PHI
94. DeSean Jackson WAS
95. Sterling Shepherd NYG
96. Marcus Mariota TEN
97. DeAngelo Williams PIT
98. DeMarco Murray TEN
99. Jared Cook GB
100. Ryan Mathews PHI