Fantasy Football and Poker are very similar in nature. While some (most likely noobs) would refer to both as an act of ‘gambling,’ we Juggernauts fully understand the difference between ‘Pure chance’ and ‘Skill-chance’. In order to become elite, you must rely on your skills, experience and of course be selective with the knowledge you absorb. In other words, you must know when to hold ‘em, and (before it’s too late) know when to fold ‘em.
Using the current fantasy football ADP (average draft position) we will go over a few players that stand out from the rest. Each player will be given one of three tags;
1) Check – meaning that we hold, the ADP fairly matches the players projected value and therefore we stand tight
2) Raise – signifies a player that we see greater value than where they are currently going in most drafts.
3) Fold – these are players that we feel will not live up to their current draft position, and given where there are going, will most likely not be on any of our rosters.
Make sense? Good.
Now, let’s get to it….
Joey “Joker” picks
RAISE Dion Lewis is currently going number 47 overall, essentially the 20th RB off the board. This is around the same ADP as Jeremy Langford, Matt Jones, and DeMarco Murray. Lewis was off to a hot start last year as one of the main focal points in the New England offense. He was waiver wire gold. Unfortunately, Lewis suffered a season ending injury during week 7 leaving owners searching for a replacement.
Before the injury, Lewis was on pace for: Receiving: 82 receptions, 880 receiving yards, 5 TD’s & Rushing: 534 yards, 5 TD’s. These are terrific numbers that would make Lewis a top 5 overall RB. When it comes to PPR leagues (point per reception), Lewis is a sure RAISE and can be taken with confidence a round or two earlier.
RAISE Drew Brees might be my man crush all day every day. The dude is the definition of consistency. Since Brees joined the Saints in 2006 (10 years), he has averaged a ridiculous 4,850 yards and almost 35 TD’s per season (all while missing only 2 games).
Currently the gun slinger is being drafted as the 6th QB off the board (number 62 overall). This is behind the likes of Big Ben (59) and Andrew Luck (48). Just for a simple comparison, and laughs while you’re at it; in the last 10 years, Big Ben has averaged 3,800 yards and 24 TD’s (career high of 32).
FOLD Don’t get me wrong, I love me some Allen Robinson. He is a freak athlete with elite WR talent. The issue is that he is currently going number 16 overall in most drafts. That’s too high. Last season Robinson tied for the league lead in receiving TD’s with 14. Impressive indeed but hardly repeatable.
The Jaguars were the ultimate garbage time team as Blake Bortles (who led the league in interceptions) aired it out in order to give his team a fighting chance as they trailed early and often. With the new RB help (addition of Chris Ivory) and an improved defense, the likelihood of Allen Robinson repeating last year’s totals are slim. At 16 overall, no thank you. Give me Keenan Allen (19 overall), or Mike Evans (21).
Shaun “The Don” picks
CHECK Cam had a great year last year and you could argue that if Carolina played ANY other team than the Broncos they probably would have won the Superbowl. However, the Panthers in 2016, minus top corner Josh Norman, have a much tougher schedule this year with much better defenses then they played in 2015. Expecting the self proclaimed, “Superman”, to repeat last year’s magical run to the big game is far fetched because he is not able to feast on AFC South bottom of the barrel defenses this year, AND his own divison which sucks butt also. Which does not make him very appealing as a high draft pic, even with the gaudy stats he put up in 2016.
Although, he does get his favorite target back from injury, the beast that is Kelvin Benjamin, which means that Cam is still an elite option at quarterback and is a solid pick up right where his ADP is, which is in the middle to late third round in non keeper league formats.
RAISE The Dolphins essentially trade for Foster with out actually trading for him, swapping Lamar Miler, who signed with Houston at the beginning of free agency and now Foster has signed with Miami. I don’t care what anyone says, if Foster is healthy (even for the time being) Ajayi does not have any shot at the starting role out of the gate.
Foster a few years ago was easily the number one overall pick in Fantasy drafts and has an incredibly unique blend of elusive cutting and preemptive field vision to be an elite running back even if he’s lost a step due to injuries. Currently, his ADP sits at 100, which is sure to change with the news of his signing yesterday, so mark him up in your draft to around 60-70 and enjoy his elite skill set for half the season.
FOLD Anderson came through for the Broncos in the playoffs last year and was rightfully rewarded for being the best player on offense en route to an always elusive Superbowl title.
However, with the way things are shaping up for the Broncos with Mark Sanchez pegged as their starter at Quarterback to date, not too much is expected from their passing game this year which typically results in opposing defenses loading the box bringing heavy blitzes forcing the offense to beat them at their weak point, through the air. He has never really been good when teams stack the box against him, he’s tough and can make good cuts but does not have the break away speed to outrun a loaded box to the edge of the line. Not to mention, he plays in a division loaded with atheleteicly talented defenses and I would actually recommend taking his division rival in Oakland who’s ADP currently sits at 37, one behind CJ’s.
With the Raiders quietly spending boat loads of cash on their O-line during the offseason, Latavious Murray has the opportunity to finish this year as a top 5 running back in Fantasy for 2016 and is easily one of my top break out candidate’s for 2016.
Joey “the joker”
Shaun “the don”